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Contributed Papers

Contributed Paper Session I-1 #5

Subevent of Contributed Paper Session I-1

Couch 223

Times: 2025 Feb 28 from 03:20PM to 03:35PM (Eastern Time (US & Canada))

Change Point Detection in Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models

Chao Gu ⟨cgu@citadel.edu⟩

Abstract:

We propose a CUSUM-based testing procedure to sequentially monitor structural changes in Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models using a penalized algorithm. Initially, this approach leverages historical panel data to simultaneously perform variable selection and estimation through a penalization method applied to the ARDL model. To detect any change point when new data is introduced, we conduct tests based on the CUSUM statistics. The consistency of this method, along with the oracle property of the resulting regularized estimators, is thoroughly examined. Additionally, we establish the asymptotic properties of the test statistics under both the null and alternative hypotheses. Simulations are carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and a real data application is presented to illustrate the detection procedure.

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