In this study, we investigated the primary economic drivers of inflation in the United States from 2019-2025, and how can these forces be modeled to predict future inflation trends. This was important because the years following the Covid-19 pandemic brough a rapid rise in inflation, significantly impacting American households and businesses. This created a major challenge for policymakers, who needed to understand what was pushing prices up. This study aims to uncover these key drivers, providing insight to inform future economic decisions and better prepare for rising prices. To address this, we used a Vector Autoregression model, a statistical tool showing how economic factors influence each other over time. Our model included changes in consumer prices (CPI), money supply (M2SL), global supply chain pressures (GSCPI), unemployment changes, and personal savings. We ensured our data was stable for the model to work correctly and chose the best number of past periods to capture complex interactions. We then performed Granger Causality tests, to see if one variable could predict another; Impulse Response Function to show how variables react to unexpected shocks; and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD), to find out which shocks were most responsible for future changes in each variable. Crucially, our model passed important checks for stability and reliability, ensuring our results are trustworthy. Our results showed that our model was robust and reliable. Granger Causality tests indicated that both M2SL (money supply) and the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index were significant predictors of the overall economy. However, changes in CPI did not significantly predict other variables. When analyzing shocks, a surprising increase in M2SL briefly lowered inflation and unemployment. Crucially, a GSCPI shock significantly pushed inflation higher, highlighting a strong link between supply chain issues and rising prices. The forecast analysis further changed due to its own past shocks from M2SL and especially GSCPI became increasingly important for understanding future inflation swings. Other variables like M2Sl and savings were largely divided by their own trends. These results suggest that global supply chain pressures played a major role in recent inflation, supporting a “supply-side” explanation for rising prices. While money supply does influence the economy, its direct impact on inflation can be complex and short lived. Our findings imply that strategies to strengthen supply chains could be as vital as central bank actions in controlling inflation. This deeper understanding helps improve forecasts and guides better economic policies moving forward.